AI and lab tests combine to predict disease risk from rare genetic variants

When genetic testing reveals a rare DNA mutation, doctors and patients are frequently left in the dark about what it actually means. Now, researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai have developed a powerful new way to determine whether a patient with a mutation is likely to actually develop disease, a concept known in genetics as penetrance.

The team set out to solve this problem using artificial intelligence (AI) and routine lab tests like cholesterol, blood counts, and kidney function. Details of the findings were reported in Science. The paper is titled “Machine learning-based penetrance of genetic variants.”

Their new method combines machine learning with electronic health records to offer a more accurate, data-driven view of genetic risk.

Traditional genetic studies often rely on a simple yes/no diagnosis to classify patients. But many diseases, like high blood pressure, diabetes, or cancer, don’t fit neatly into binary categories. The Mount Sinai researchers trained AI models to quantify disease on a spectrum, offering more nuanced insight into how disease risk plays out in real life.

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