AI model forecasts disease risk decades in advance

Researchers have developed a generative AI model that uses large-scale health records to estimate how human health may change over time. It can forecast the risk and timing of over 1,000 diseases and predict health outcomes over a decade in advance.

This new generative AI model was custom-built using algorithmic concepts similar to those used in large language models (LLMs). It was trained on anonymized patient data from 400,000 participants from the UK Biobank.

Researchers also successfully tested the model using data from 1.9 million patients in the Danish National Patient Registry. This approach is one of the most comprehensive demonstrations to date of how generative AI can model human disease progression at scale and was tested on data from two entirely separate health care systems.

“Our AI model is a proof of concept, showing that it’s possible for AI to learn many of our long-term health patterns and use this information to generate meaningful predictions,” said Ewan Birney, Interim Executive Director at the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL).

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